Here we are nearing the end of June and if you have been following the news you know that the U.S. has confirmed that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against the rebels. You are probably interested to know the state of my portfolio because I have been pretty bad at posting updates. The main issue was that I got impatient for the contracts to close and started taking contracts in which I had less confidence. There were also a lot of small trades. Here is an excel file so that you can see each of them. The summary goes like this:
I cashed out my gold contracts and then tried to make money as gold went the other way and it did not bounce the way I had hoped. Also went short on Microsoft breaking 32.50 (a five year high), which it then broke. That cash was all lost. Then I cashed out some of my Syria stock to try to benefit from the Microsoft surge and it did not quite go high enough, that money was lost as well. So, all in all, my impatience punished me every time. I do recommend you look at the excel sheet as you will see where most of the losses occurred.
So now we move to the interesting part. For the last couple of weeks I have been sitting with nothing in my portfolio other than the Syria stock. France had said they confirmed it, U.K. had done the same but there still seemed to be some uncertainty. I had 212 contracts at an average price of about 14 cents each. A few hours after the White House made its announcement today the contract was closed at $1, which means that my current cash level is NZ$212.09. The nine cents was leftover from before.
This little experiment began April 12th, by the time you read this is will be June 14th. I started with NZ$60 and now have NZ$212.09, a 253% increase. Free money.
For now my portfolio is empty. At one point it contained over 300 of the Syrian contracts so that lesson on impatience has been learned. Also, from now on if there are any purchases made, the update will be posted here within 24 hours. It is possible that the next purchases may be on a different site but that decision has not yet been made. iPredict seems fairly well organized so far, perhaps another few contracts before cashing out.
Finally, the hope is that the next purchase need not involve crimes against humanity.