US Election. Money Where My Mouth Is

We have yet to look at the US election here at Webernet and we are not going to do it in any great detail for this post. Also, we have not done any Free Money posts this year so I figured it would be a good idea to combine the two ideas.

First idea was to place a standard bet on Clinton to win. Oh, Webernet.ca officially endorses Hillary Clinton.  Bold, I know. Unfortunately most bookies believe that Clinton will win so the odds are only 1.2 for her to win.  That is, only $20 profit on a $100 bet. Not good enough for readers of Webernet.ca.

Next came a look through other options like by-state bets, total electoral votes etc.  None of the options were both possible and well paying.  The ideal situation would have been the ability to parlay state by state results but no one is offering that option.

Instead, we will work under two assumptions.  One, Clinton will win the election. Two, Clinton winning the election will be good for the US dollar. This means we need to buy some USD.  Now simply going to a bank and asking for some USD is not the best way to make this bet.  Instead we will use Canadian dollars to buy some USD and then use those USD to open a leveraged position in an foreign exchange (FX) trading market.

There were some leftover funds in an FX account used in past Free Money posts and another $200 USD has been added to that total. Because of the way the FX platform works with holding fees we invested $55 and then $190 about 15 mins apart.  The FX pair selected? USA/Canada of course.  Average purchase price, $1.3379. Here is the screenshot of the “portfolio”.
usd2

As you see in that image the leverage rate is 400X.  Now we’re talking. 

The take profit level has been set to 1.35. Total investment: $245 USD.  What makes this method more interesting than a standard sports bookie bet?  Risk. The stop loss settings have been limited for the US election so the stop loss has been set to 1.3347.  If the USD drops $0.0032 before it increases $0.0121 against the Loonie then this bet is a total loss. If, instead, it rises $0.0121 first then the total payout will be $877.63 USD.

We deserve at least that much for having to live through this dumpster fire of an election season.

 

 

Please type what you think and why.